Wednesday, September 19, 2018 New York : London: India: Tokyo:





Gold recovered slightly from the low of $1263 made on Friday on account of short covering and slight increase in oil price. The yellow metal jumped till $1278 and is currently trading around $1275.72. The upside is expected to be capped by increasing US bond yield and increasing hopes of rate cuts by Fed.

Large precious metals speculators continued to reduce their net positions in the Gold futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 191,385 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 24th. This was a weekly drop of -9,339 contracts from the previous week. Speculators have now decreased their positions in gold for five out of the last six weeks.

This week is packed with major economic data and central bank meeting. Fed monetary policy meeting starts today and ends on Wed and BOE policy meeting to be held on Thursday.  US non-farm payroll data to be released on Friday.

US Dollar index has shown a minor decline till 94.44 from the high 95.15. The index is facing strong resistance at 95.20 (161.8% fibo) and any break above targets 96/96.51 level. It is currently trading around 94.59. The pair is facing major support near 93.95 (7- day MA) and any break below confirms minor weakness till 93.51 (55- day EMA)/92.60 likely.

Technically gold is facing near term resistance around $1278 (10- day MA) and any break above will take the pair to next level till $1284/$1291. Overall bullish continuation can be seen if it closes above $1298(50- day MA).

Gold’s near term support is around $1262 (61.8% retracement of $1204 and $1357.90) and break below will drag the commodity down till $1250.The yellow metal should close below $1250 for major trend reversal. It is good to sell on rallies around $1276-$1278 with SL around $1284 for the TP of $1262/$1250.

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